ABSTRACT
Background:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a serious and even lethal respiratory illness. The mortality of critically ill patients with COVID-19, especially short term mortality, is considerable. It is crucial and urgent to develop risk models that can predict the mortality risks of patients with COVID-19 at an early stage, which is helpful to guide clinicians in making appropriate decisions and optimizing the allocation of hospital resoureces.Methods:In this retrospective observational study, we enrolled 949 adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to Tongji Hospital in Wuhan between January 28 and February 12, 2020. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected and analyzed. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval for assessing the risk factors for 30-day mortality.Results:The 30-day mortality was 11.8% (112 of 949 patients). Forty-nine point nine percent (474) patients had one or more comorbidities, with hypertension being the most common (359 [37.8%] patients), followed by diabetes (169 [17.8%] patients) and coronary heart disease (89 [9.4%] patients). Age above 50 years, respiratory rate above 30 beats per minute, white blood cell count of more than10 × 109/L, neutrophil count of more than 7 × 109/L, lymphocyte count of less than 0.8 × 109/L, platelet count of less than 100 × 109/L, lactate dehydrogenase of more than 400 U/L and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein of more than 50 mg/L were independent risk factors associated with 30-day mortality in patients with COVID-19. A predictive CAPRL score was proposed integrating independent risk factors. The 30-day mortality were 0% (0 of 156), 1.8% (8 of 434), 12.9% (26 of 201), 43.0% (55 of 128), and 76.7% (23 of 30) for patients with 0, 1, 2, 3, ≥4 points, respectively.Conclusions:We designed an easy-to-use clinically predictive tool for assessing 30-day mortality risk of COVID-19. It can accurately stratify hospitalized patients with COVID-19 into relevant risk categories and could provide guidance to make further clinical decisions. © 2021 The Chinese Medical Association, Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.
ABSTRACT
From the perspective of Chinese equity fund shareholding, the authors study the economic consequences of institutional investors' shareholding illiquidity. They use the stock holding data of Chinese mutual funds to verify that the illiquidity of mutual funds' stock holding brings fragility to individual stock returns. Specifically, to meet investor redeeming requirement, illiquid fund managers are forced to fire-sale assets. The selling pressure created by this behavior causes the stock to be traded at a price lower than its true value, increasing the stock price collapse risk. Finally, using COVID-19 case data in China, the authors design a quasi-natural experiment confirming the conclusion in this article.